Predictions for the DFW Real Estate Market

by Britt Fair with Fair Title Company

2022 was an unpredictable year in Real Estate and things are settling down somewhat due to the following factors spelled out by Britt Fair of Fair Title Company. His predictions are as follows:

What happened in 2022?

❑ US/DFW housing’s big slowdown is due to a rapid rise in mortgage rates

❑ Mortgage rates jumped as expectations of future inflation rose

❑ Buyers and sellers have both hit the pause button

❑ Inflation is already causing significant difficulty for family budgets

❑ Fortunately, high levels of equity will minimize foreclosures

❑ Fed is expected to continue to steadily hike the Fed Funds rate to choke off excess demand that is causing inflation – likely to cause significant layoffs and hurt corporate profits, the stock market, etc.

❑ The economic slowdown in 2023 should have a silver lining – the demand destruction of higher Fed Funds rates should fix the inflation problem and allow mortgage rates (and Treasury rates) to fall

How will DFW compare to other places?

❑Job losses and forced home sales are never positive, but they should be less severe in DFW than other places 
❑ Recessions tend to spur people to relocate to North Texas

❑ No income tax, central US location, Central time zone, good navigable weather, highways and airports, lower regulations, land available for growth, etc.

❑ Our diverse economy also helps shield us against the ups and downs of specific sectors as opposed to places with specific concentrations, such as Houston (energy), San Francisco (tech) and New York (finance)

  • ❑ DFW Population is still projected to continue to grow substantially.

Key Takeaways & Predictions

❑  Home prices have softened in the last 6 months, but I expect them to increase by a small percentage over next 12 months as mortgage rates fall

❑. DFW relocation boom is likely to gain steam during US recession, as people tend to only make such large decisions when forced to do so, and relo will again shield DFW somewhat from downturn

❑ 2023 will start slow - activity will rebound late spring or summer